New Track, Same Destination?

Good Tuesday morning from the train between Salzburg and Vienna. It was a smooth ride until the train was rerouted at the last minute due to a car accident on one of the crossings. But as I’ve learned from Austrians over the last two years: kein Stress.

Speaking of rerouting…

This morning, the European Commission revised its 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts downward. EU point to tariffs and currency pressure, but the shift is deeper than that. Germany—long the economic anchor of the EU—is no longer projecting quiet confidence. And Brussels is adjusting course.

Over the past few editions, we’ve tracked this buildup:

• €700 million in digital fines.

• A strong euro, up 8.5% against the dollar.

• Slowing German growth forecasts—first to 0.3%, then to flat, and now, broader regional revisions.

Mitgehangen, mitgefangen. (If you’re in it, you’re in it.)

Now, the Commission has finalized a €95 billion countermeasure package and is openly signaling frustration with the scope of U.S. trade offers. With the July 8 deadline approaching, it’s clear the EU isn’t simply posturing. It’s preparing.

Today’s curated articles show how economic pessimism—particularly out of Berlin—is shaping a tougher EU negotiating stance, and why recent deals with the UK and China may have complicated, not clarified, the path to resolution.

And like today’s train: once you’re on a different track, the destination may still be the same—but how you get there changes everything.

See you on Friday.

Leigh Fatzinger, Editor
Salzburg, Austria / 20 May 2025