The “TACO” Bell is Ringing

Two months ago, we published the very first Evodince: EU Trade briefing. Back then, the headlines were still fresh with shockwaves from Washington: a “Liberation Day” press conference at the White House, an opaque “algorithm” behind sweeping tariffs, and back-to-back market whiplash: one of the steepest drops in decades, followed by one of the sharpest rebounds. 📉📈

Tariffs—and retaliatory tariffs—ranged from 10% to 150%. Deadlines were stated and moved. A running threat list of line items were under review. Point, counterpoint. Punch, counterpunch.

Americans and Europeans alike found themselves learning the names of trade reps, policy staffers, and billionaires they’d previously never thought about. It was on. It was off. And somewhere in the middle of it all came “TACO trade,” or “TACO theory”—a term coined to describe the President’s back and forth moves (Trump Always Chickens Out).

It would be comical if trade policy didn’t affect just about every one of us in deeply personal ways. If we were able to watch from afar while the powers that be arrived at some agreement around what is fair and just in this apparent—and striking—conclusion to the globalization movement.

In the midst, the OECD this morning downgraded its global growth forecast. U.S. imports are in sharp decline. And Europe is moving from reactive to retaliatory, warning of consequences over Washington’s 25% steel tariff hike. Meanwhile, Germany is stepping up its strategic messaging, framing itself not just as Europe’s economic engine, but its emerging security guarantor. Tax cuts are on the table in Germany, and interest rate cuts at the European Central Bank.

With that said, as both continents head into BBQ and summer holiday season, I guess what I’m trying to say today is…enjoy your time with friends and loved ones, and away from the news. The circus will be here when you return.

All the best to you!

Leigh Fatzinger, Editor
Salzburg, Austria / 3 June 2025